cardiff de alejo garcia

Aug 11

Kal’s cartoon: this week, the US business cycle


Kal’s cartoon: this week, the US business cycle

Apr 23

Gambler’s fallacy tested on actual gamblers

The answer to the mystery was revealed when Xu and Harvey analysed the odds of the bets placed by gamblers in the middle of a streak, and the amount they staked. Gamblers who won tended to take their next bet on a safer odds than the bet they had just won, with the reverse true for people on losing streaks. This, the researchers suggest, is because they believed in the gambler’s fallacy and so expected their luck to turn. This had the paradoxical effect of creating luck for those who were already winning - because they then made bets they were more likely to win - and rubbing in the bad luck of those who were losing - because they made bets which they were less likely to win and so perpetuated their losing streak.

BPS Research Digest

Oct 6
“The harder they looked, the less they saw. And so it is with luck – unlucky people miss chance opportunities because they are too focused on looking for something else. They go to parties intent on finding their perfect partner and so miss opportunities to make good friends. They look through newspapers determined to find certain type of job advertisements and as a result miss other types of jobs. Lucky people are more relaxed and open, and therefore see what is there rather than just what they are looking for.”

"Survivorship bias", You are not so smart

Jul 28

Whole video is worthwhile but it really gets going at the 3:25 mark, when Robin Hanson starts riffing…

Jul 22

Now, over 450 of the nation’s 1,380 dailies have digital play plans in place or in the works, according to the Pew Research Center.

There’s a shift in reader sentiment as well. In 2010, Pew’s State of the Media report revealed that 82% of its 11,000 respondents would abandon their favorite news site if it introduced a paywall. In 2012, a study by DigiCareers posed the same question. This time, only 52% indicated they’d be willing to abandon their favorite site if it erected a paywall.

Thank You For Using The Internet! We Regret To Inform You That Your Free Trial Has Expired.

Jul 20
“It’s his charm. It’s his gift. It’s his political liability, and it’s part of an American conundrum. We beg for authenticity, and then when we get it, oh man, it’s hilarious.”

Have You Heard the One About President Joe Biden?

Jul 19
La vuelta al mundo de un aquitecto en 30 fotografias
(More such aerial photos of other cities at the link.)

La vuelta al mundo de un aquitecto en 30 fotografias

(More such aerial photos of other cities at the link.)

Jul 17
“Yet the nightmare cast its shroud in the guise of a contagion of a deer-in-the-headlights paralysis.”

The world’s worst sentence?

“When legislators passed a draconian law popularly called The Cat and Mouse Act, which allowed police officers to capture suffragette leaders, she taught her skills to a band of women tasked to guard them from harm. Called “Jiu-jitsu Suffragettes,” they waged a campaign of civil disobedience on the streets of London and fought in bloody riots against baton-wielding police officers. Politicians who fought against suffrage on several occasions found their houses stoned or burned to the ground (although great care was taken to avoid loss of life).” “Suffragette City”, Fight Magazine

Jul 16

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